Exclusive: Extended review of State of the Industry Conference

Having been in post just over a decade as president and CEO of the NCA, John Downs continues to roll with the ever changing confectionery landscape. Editor Neill Barston meets him in Miami to reflect on this year’s State of the Industry Conference, and look ahead to Sweets & Snacks Expo.

Taking to the stage for the State of the Industry Conference in the guise of a late night talk show host sees NCA’s president and CEO John Downs serves up some especially welcome gems of humour.

After what has seemed a challenging period for many businesses across the confectionery sector, the injection of some well-timed positive reflections set the scene for a memorable few days in Florida. Indeed, for the record gathering of around 800 industry members returning to the stylish Miami suburban surroundings of the Turnberry resort, there was a mood of cautious optimism that has pervaded a sector that has weathered its fair share of tests. For his part in what is just past his tenth year with the NCA, Downs continues to focus on a message of hope. (watch our exclusive video review of the event below).

His upbeat stance is not born from a sense of mere duty, but built upon firm foundations of an industry attaining record high figures put at $54 billion in sales during 2024. While the evidence reveals from the latest State of Treating report being exclusively put to the event audience by the trade body notes that consumers are feeling the pinch of uncertain economic times, they have encouragingly not lost their love of candy. Consequently, this is among the overarching themes of this year’s event, asserting that through hard work and determination, the wheels of fortune will continue to smile favourably on the sector.

As for his own contributions, Downs continually plays his leadership part in celebrating success within the sector. This has spanned everything from playing the event stage role of a NASA astronaut, which preceded last year’s tribute to the industry appearing decked out in full confectionery lab coat attire. His infectiously laid-back manner comes Having been in post just over a decade as president and CEO of the NCA, John Downs continues to roll with the ever changing confectionery landscape.

Editor Neill Barston meets him in Miami to reflect on this year’s State of the Industry Conference across as both engagingly earnest, and, equally as significant, refreshingly realistic about the state of play across the region’s diverse and extensive sector. “Our industry is growing, with a record $54 billion in sales last year in total, which is quite an accomplishment. But on the other hand, we all know that you are under pressure because of inflation. So, we all need to pay attention to price points, value sizes, in-store merchandising and creating that experience by working with our retail partners to dream up innovations that work and inspire, and put smiles on peoples’ faces,” enthuses the NCA’s president to an attentive audience.

He comments that the use of newer channels including social media, as well as e-commerce were also becoming ever-more significant to help reverse a decline in physical volumes of candy, which was down a couple of percentage points during the past year. Addressing the audience, he remarks that this year has felt like it has already been especially momentous in terms of being a ‘whirlwind’ of global events, which the NCA and its membership must adapt to, but he remains upbeat about prospects. Reflecting further, he explains that gathering the entire confectionery ecosystem under one roof is notably gratifying in offering the chance to forge new and meaningful connections for its veteran attendees and newcomers alike.

The Candy Dish
While it seems he isn’t quite ready to trade his present role for a slot hosting comedy sketch show Saturday Night Live, his turn as self-styled candid TV show host “Johnny Downs,” fronting the Candy Dish round-up of the industry’s headline events saw him exchange quips with former White House press secretary Kellyanne Conway, who offers a frank insight into the inner workings of the Trump administration.

Among other memorable musings, she asserts that the Republican leader “does not like to be surrounded by yes men, he likes a variety of views,” imploring people not judge him by his stream of social media discourse on X (Twitter), but rather by the manner of how executive orders are delivered. These have certainly come think and fast in the first three months since retaking office. In addition, Downs also proffers praise to a full range of guests including economist Ron Insana, who offered a frank assessment on the state of the nation, which is presently grappling with the introduction of tariffs that have caused notable market disruption.

These are escalating rapidly, creating a blanket global import tax hike of a minimum of 10 per cent on imports, and far higher for some nations, including China. The president explains to the audience: “There’s been a whirl of executive orders, with President Trump announcing a 25% tariff on all goods from Mexico and Canada.

“Are we feeling terrified – yes, kind of terrified. So, Washington DC is ground zero for business, finance, politics and media and even culture. And to be successful in this new environment, we are going to have a sophisticated operation. “It’s a little bit like making candy, one part science, one part art, so that’s going to be our new approach to Congress and the new administration. We have to prepare for the long game, and build the right relationships and decision makers in the right places so that we can be successful,” he explains of the NCA’s strategy for working with the country’s new political landscape.

As he evaluates, this is likely to require the ability to be especially fleet of foot over the next four years in order to react towards a flurry of political directives, as it prepares for a busy year including the Sweets & Snacks Expo this month (between 12-15 May) including its supplier showcase opening on 12 May. (see our exclusive video preview for that show below).

State of Treating
To his credit, Downs, as with the rest of the NCA team, are keenly aware of acknowledging that conditions remain comparatively challenging within some segments of the market. This includes chocolate sales being down during the past year, as well as ongoing supply chain tests including the region’s comparatively high sugar prices. However, as the NCA’s chief of staff, Elise Fennig, explains, there’s hope ahead in the medium term.

The senior analyst (pictured above), says financial pressures on consumers mean they “have had to continue with a balancing act” with their shopping habits. Significantly, she explains this had seen a shift in sales slightly away from higher priced premium chocolates, towards the more affordable candy end of the sector, as many people took a more cautious approach to their household budgets. She reveals there had indeed been a prominent reversal in trends from just two years ago – when in 2022/23, consumers stated their biggest factor in purchasing was in fact their mood and product taste, while at present, price points were the greatest decision point.

Notably, the results reflect a complex picture with the State of Treating’s results, recording chocolate sales up 0.4 per cent to $21.4 billion in value, yet down in 3.3 per cent in pure volume terms. Non chocolate candy is the category with the momentum at present, standing up 4.9 per cent at $12.7 bn in sales. While the results offer up a mixed picture, the long-term trajectory serves up cause for optimism.

Personal reflections
As for some of his favourite moments, the NCA’s president offered plenty of praise for some of its motivational moments. These included a main stage presentations from Molly Bloom, the inspiration for the recent hit movie, Molly’s Game, as well as the brightly attired Savannah Bananas Founder and Owner Jesse Cole, who wins over the crowd with some entertaining interaction, including inciting an unexpected dance routine from audience members.

The keynote, who is a huge baseball enthusiast, imparts his personal motto of “swing hard in case you might hit,” as his mantra for approaching life, with both these keynote names eliciting standing ovations. Commenting on the event afterwards, the NCA president enthuses that there had been plenty of positive takeaways that he hopes will serve to inspire the industry for the rest of the year and beyond. He observes: “The annual State of the Industry Conference is always special, but we really felt the magic this year: even with attendance at the highest we’ve ever seen it, this was two and a half days of interactions that you can’t get anywhere else. “Attendees describe SOTIC as a family reunion and for good reason – the confectionery industry is a tight-knit community.

Many attendees come from multigenerational, family-owned companies or have spent decades in the industry, fostering a strong sense of camaraderie and a welcoming atmosphere in which even our most recent recruits feel at home.” He explains that he has made a strong personal point of gaining feedback from all those fresh to the event, in order to further refine the conference’s offering. “In my annual State of the Industry speech, I shared why I’m optimistic about the future of the confectionery industry. According to our 2025 State of Treating report, confectionery sales topped $54 billion in 2024. And innovation in chocolate and candy isn’t slowing down. Confectionery sales are expected to exceed $70 billion by 2029 and as inflationary pressures ease, the fun and unique products that our member companies make will be there to delight and inspire consumers.”

Sotic attracted a broad array of industry members. Pic: Neill Barston

Strategic direction
Significantly, as the president adds, the organisation offered a debut to its new strategic plan. This is known as Elevate: 2028, NCA’s new strategic direction. As its leader notes, this defines the organisation’s modernised mission, vision, core values, and strategic imperatives that will guide it over the next three years. It also includes a new logo, offering a key transformation of its brand to match its revitalised mission and vision. “As we bring Elevate: 2028 to life, it is clear to me that our industry is closely aligned on our roadmap for the future, which begins and ends with creating products that make moments sweeter for consumers.

Beyond its own vision, one of the most striking presentations across the two and a half days came from Futurist Steve Brown, a former Google employee and AI specialist (see our separate additional feature). His striking presentation delivers plenty of food for thought on how technology will provide a blueprint for how the sector’s landscape will look. How does the NCA’s president feel that industry will adapt?

“I think it’s already happening. If you look at what companies are doing with applications in production and operation, maintenance, sales forecasting, HR and talent development, our companies are already getting involve in that and that is just going to accelerate. “So, you look at all those attributes on the chart there about humanity – and all things that robots can do on the other side of the fence, and marrying that to make you more effective and efficient. So I said to Steve Brown that this is going to turbo charge employee performance from a talent development standpoint.”

Consumer trends
As in previous editions, there’s also space at the event for discussion on some of the most significant trends emerging in the market, as well some of its core supply chains. This is most notably seen with a session led by Barry Callebaut and Blommer, exploring the turbulent state of the cocoa segment. Unsurprisingly, the comparatively high price of cocoa during the past 18 months in particular occupies much of the event’s conversations. There seems little surprise at analysts’ assessments that this present situation is set to alter tremendously in the near future.

As for product trends, the major treating report reveals a pattern of shoppers shifting away from premium chocolate amid a period of price rises, with perceptions of more affordable candy ranges enjoying an uplift in popularity which is driving innovations. In an era of permissible indulgence, the NCA retains its core messaging of confectionery being ‘always a treat’, though as its president notes, there’s still space for specific better for you product development. John adds: “There’s still a segment of consumer population that better for you categories are going to be important to, such as zero sugar, low sugar.

“People managing their sugar intake is going to continue to have growth – it’s still a small part of the overall sales, but there’s a place for it, a place for innovation relating to reformulation, ingredients and textures and tastes in the category. The other great things is that there’s room for everyone in terms of the pie,” notes the industry leader, who says the NCA’s core platform continues to revolve around a pillar of the 3 A’s – affordability, availability and acceptability. With Sweets & Snacks Expo firmly on the immediate horizon, it seems the sector is primed and race ready, as is only fitting with the show returning to the home of Indy 500 car racing – which will once again form a fitting finale to the show this May. John concludes optimistically on the event’s prospects: “I can’t wait to get back to Indianapolis for the 2025 Sweets & Snacks Expo. We’re expecting more than 1,000 exhibitors and 14,000 attendees, so it’ll be an action-packed event filled with trendspotting, education, and relationship building. “It’s the best place to see all the innovation taking place across the candy and snacks categories at once, and proof positive that the future of our industry is bright.

Views from the conference

This year’s State of the Industry event included a total of around 800 attendees from across the sector, across brands, equipment, ingredients and systems specialists who engaged with the show across its three days. Confectionery Production spoke to several guests who offered their reflections on the show.

Adam Holloway, of TNA North America (above), believed it had proved a notable first experience with the event. He said: “As a first timer to the event, I think they did a very good job of putting it together, it’s quite an expansive event, with a high standard of speakers – the two that stood out for me were Kellyanne Conway and Molly Bloom – both were great, while the AI presentation was amazing and terrifying at the same time, showing some of the tasks that can now be done with it that we didn’t even realise. What may eventually happen with it that it will require a different, smarter workforce.”

For her part, Lyn Pitt, managing director of UK-based DT&G Limited, has made the journey from Britain for the past few years, and noted to our title that this year had proved enjoyable in gaining a handle on major developments for the region’s industry, as well as paving the way for Sweets & Snacks this month.

She commented: “Sotic this year dealt with the issues that are relevant to the US – which are the same for the UK and Europe in that we have the tariffs that are coming in for international trade. It has also looked at AI and how that will benefit everyone, and it was very interesting to see the robots that are coming through and are already out there in industry already, which was interesting. 

“It was also intriguing to hear from Barry Callebaut about the historic prices that the market is producing now, so it was good that they acknowledged that farmers need to be earning more and increase the level of production from the land that they have, which can done through different cocoa plants. That was very interesting too – as without those people, there would not be any industry. The other intriguing to emerge was that candy is outselling chocolate for the first time in a long time, which is down to the fact that everyone is looking at their weekly budgets.”

Equally impressed by the event, Dr Maximilian Marquart, co-founder of Planet A, which has been among a small band of pioneering companies that have developed cocoa-free chocolate, 

“We are very strategic about the events that we do, and we have looked at countries that have a very strong foundation of trade membership and we were introduced to the NCA by a customer a couple of years ago, and became a member last year. So we tested out the event this year, and definitely enjoyed it. While it’s a bit like the early days of company in Germany where you don’t know anyone, but it’s been good as we have been able to tell a fresh story here. 

“For the presentations, we looked at the session on cocoa prices, and what that means for consumers, and with what is happening with cocoa, we are able to show something that has never been seen before, creating chocolate without cocoa. We have had a good response here to our products – it’s a European taste to it, and people have said that it is less sugary than they are used to in the US, so if we have to refine this for the American market then we are happy to do it,” explained the industry entrepreneur, who says that it remains the company’s goal to integrate into the sector in as seamless manner as possible.

Finally, among ingredients businesses represented at the event was Capol – which will be featuring at this year’s Sweets & Snacks Expo event as part of the supplier showcase taking place on 12-13.

Jospeh Napoetano, head of sales for the group. said: “This is my first time at Sotic, having been encouraged to come here by my colleagues, it’s definitely not been a disappointment. What I like fundamentally is the chance to network with customers and pick their brains on how they see things going in the industry at this very moment. In my view, AI is going to be market and world changing. The way I see it is from a sales productivity perspective. It will change the game of how processes work in an industry, and confectionery is no different in that respect. It’s great to see people here, and in spite of the market environment that we’re facing, it’s also great people are still enjoying themselves as well as staying focused on carrying on with their businesses.”