Retail price inflation sees chocolate prices rise notably for Christmas

Retail price inflation has continued to impact the confectionery sector in the UK, with latest ONS monthly data showing Christmas chocolate series had increased on average of 17%, writes Neill Barston.

This emerged as among the most rapidly-rising categories across the wider sector, with only beef and veal seeing steeper costs increases (27%), while milk rose 14% and coffee, 14%.

There was better news in some categories, including olive oil dropping 16% from what was a particularly elevated peak, as well as sugar costs falling by 4%, which will be welcomed by many confectionery manufacturers.

The latest hikes in chocolate prices in particular, mirror results from last year, which saw a steep spike in prices in the run-in to the lucrative Christmas confectionery market, which was largely blamed on spiralling cocoa prices that remained high for the first half of 2025, before dropping away to around the $6,000 a tonne mark this December.

As the UK’s Food and Drink federation noted, there has been a sharply mixed picture for the overall sector. The ONS reported on 48 main categories this month, of which 26 saw inflation slowing, with inflation rising for the other 22 categories.

With many UK household budgets remaining constrained this year, as previously reported, consumers have also been faced with the ongoing factor of Shrinkflation, where many product ranges have reduced in portion size, while retail costs increase.

Karen Betts, Chief Executive, The Food and Drink Federation (FDF), commented: “It’s good to see food inflation starting to fall, not least as shoppers fill their cupboards for the festive season. Nonetheless, food prices remain higher this Christmas than last and many consumers are having to make tough choices about what they buy this year. Manufacturers continue to work hard to cut costs and pass any potential savings on to consumers, but themselves continue to face significant cost pressures. To really impact this persistent food inflation, we need Government to redouble efforts with food businesses to reduce costs, like energy, and boost growth and productivity to bring down prices in the coming weeks and months across the food and drink supply chain.”