Halloween forecasts reveal mixed retail fortunes, as consumers face inflation and budget constraints

Celebrations for this year’s Halloween in the UK are forecast to show a cautious rise of 3.2% this year, reaching £537 million in sales across retail categories, including confectionery, though much of this the upturn is inflation-linked, writes Neill Barston.

The analysis from GlobalData showed that the upturn in spending is less than 2024’s increase, with chocolate confectionery seeing increases of at least 15% in some instances during the past year, as manufacturers pass on hikes in cocoa prices to consumers.

In the US, the picture is correspondingly similar, with spending anticipated to be around $13.1 billion on all Halloween related-goods and services, up from $11 billion last year.

Indeed a report for CBS stated that a box of 48 full-sized chocolate bars was now up from $40 to $50 in the course of a year, highlighting the pressure on the sector, with chocolate confectionery sales in the US reducing for the first time in a number of years.

According to the Globaldata study for the UK, some six in ten Halloween shoppers plan to reduce spending on the event due to financial constraints, and this budget-conscious approach is expected to inhibit consumers from splashing out on decorations and costumes.

Retailers must showcase ranges that offer indulgence, seasonal appeal, and curiosity to encourage cautious shoppers to make purchases, according to Globaldata analytics company.

The organisation’s latest report, “Retail Occasions: Halloween Intentions 2025,” showed that almost half of UK shoppers plan to participate in Halloween festivities this year, though 60% of consumers planned to cut back on their level of spending.

This is particularly true of  25–34-year-olds, though the final results will be make for intriguing reading, with this year’s Halloween falling on a Friday night – which is a traditionally strong party and celebration evening.

Eleanor Simpson-Gould, senior retail Analyst at GlobalData, noted:“To appeal to this core Halloween shopper, retailers must promote low-cost Halloween items such as themed candles, drinks, and snacks to encourage small impulse purchases and boost volumes.”

Significantly, the study found that another factor facing the spooky sector is that a consumer sentiment persisted that “Halloween is a waste of money” in terms of specific celebrations compared to other points in the year.

Consequently, GlobalData forecasts demand for food, drinks, and decorative items will increase due to traditional interest in pumpkins and trick-or-treating supplies in multipack bags. However, retailers should adopt more strategic range design approaches to enhance sales.

Simpson-Gould continues: “Retailers must offer innovative and enduring products to shift consumer perceptions of Halloween purchases. Fortnum & Mason stands out this year with its limited-edition Halloween hamper, containing Lucifer’s Marmalade and an Uncommon Chocolate Toad, offering luxurious and curiosity-driving items that elevate the occasion. Grocers must mirror this approach, utilizing the strength and popularity of their respective premium own-brand ranges to launch limited-edition and mystery flavor food & drink items.”