An upward growth curve in the global cocoa and chocolate market has been projected, placing its value to rise from around £180billion to $216bn within the next five years, writes Neill Barston.

The studies from MarketsandMarkets, come despite continuing significant challenges faced by the two respective segments that form a vital part of the confectionery landscape.

According to the analysis, the projected growth is linked to  rising demand for premium and origin specific chocolates, as well as consumer preference for dark, reduced sugar, and healthier chocolate products.

Furthermore, growth areas have been identified in increasing focus on sustainable and traceable cocoa sourcing, expanding demand from emerging markets, and product innovation in plant based, clean label, and functional chocolate formulations.

Conversely, as the study noted, there remain considerable sector cocoa supply constraints, price volatility, climate risks, and stricter traceability requirements are encouraging manufacturers to optimise formulations and strengthen resilient sourcing strategies.

Among the core findings were: Asia  Pacific is estimated to account for 18.33% of the cocoa and chocolate market in 2026.

Moreover, by  cocoa type, the cocoa butter segment is estimated to dominate the market with a share of 47.5% in 2026.

As far as chocolate type is concerned, dark varieties are projected to witness a higher CAGR of 5.2% from 2026 to 2031. By nature, the conventional cocoa products segment is expected to hold a dominant market share during the forecast period – though as our title has reported, there is now a growing demand for alternative ranges that deliver a ‘chocolate like experience’.

Notably, the studies revealed that Europe holds the largest market share in the global cocoa and chocolate market, supported by its well-established chocolate and confectionery industry, high per-capita chocolate consumption, strong presence of leading manufacturers, and mature retail infrastructure. Countries such as Germany, the UK, France, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Belgium, and Italy represent important markets, supported by established consumer demand for chocolate across mainstream, premium, and specialty categories.

The region also has a strong heritage in chocolate manufacturing, with numerous established brands and specialized producers serving both domestic and international markets.

The European market is further supported by growing demand for premium, dark, organic, single-origin, and sustainably sourced chocolate products. Consumers are increasingly interested in product quality, cocoa origin, ethical sourcing, clean-label formulations, and sustainability, encouraging manufacturers to introduce differentiated products.

As regards cocoa markets, Europe is also critical for cocoa processing, as well as chocolate production for industrial markets, with manufacturers focused on traceability with incoming EUDR regulations, as well as product reformulation to meet additional regulatory requirements.