A commodities analysis group has expressed concerns regarding a potential major shortage of fertilisers for key crops including cocoa in West Africa, writes Neill Barston.

According to research from the CropGPT intelligence platform, it has asserted that there are prospects for a ‘catastrophic impact’ in terms of food supplies and prices for 2027s’ due to physical shortages and logistics issues significantly worsened by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East.

Notably, Since March, commodity intelligence platform CropGPT has directly surveyed thousands of farmers, every month, across eight countries to measure the impacts of the crisis.

From its findings, only 43% of those farmers reportedly got everything they needed, with farmers in India – which feeds more people than any other country in the world – reporting they have been short of fertiliser for six months.

Confectionery Production has previously highlighted the fact that crisis conditions within cocoa communities in both Ivory Coast and Ghana have meant that many farmers have been unable to obtain sufficient fertilisers and other agricultural inputs, which has placed significant strain on the sector across the region.

In response, Ghana’s government has recently put together its cocoa board (Cocobod) Bill, which aims to provide more direct assistance to farmers, as well as address pay gaps – which have come about this year as farmers have had their pay cut in the country by more than 30% since early 2026, and by 60% in Ivory Coast following a slump in commodities prices.

Significantly, the CropGPT organisation claimed that in the Ivory Coast only 6% of coffee farmers were fully supplied in August, while 40% could not get any fertiliser at all. El Nino is forecast to peak just as the effects of fertiliser shortages and thinner harvests come in, multiplying the threat to global agriculture.

The data also reveals a stark economic divide. Where crop prices are strong, such as coffee, farmers have paid more and carried on. Where they are weak, farmers have cut back or stopped buying fertiliser. Farmers who cannot obtain fertiliser face yield loses of up to 50%.

Now, with survey data finding that growers are actively cutting planting areas, abandoning crops and substituting inputs, CropGPT is warning of a potentially massive impact in 2027, with inflated food prices and global food shortages.

To demonstrate this threat to global food security, CropGPT has used its data to calculate a country risk index providing a score from zero to 100, based on supply access, price pressure and farmer behaviour. The methodology applies the heaviest weighting to farmers receiving no fertiliser because of the devastating 40 to 50% yield loss this causes.

Africa: According to the data, the most immediate threat to supply is in Africa, where across every survey wave, no more than 12% of farmers received all their required fertiliser.

In Ivory Coast, the risk index has reached the maximum severity score of 100. A survey of coffee farmers showed just 6% got everything they needed, while 40% could not get any fertiliser at all. Heavy rain is damage crops while higher input costs and weaker global commodity prices have left farmers with no money to spend.

Ghana shows a similar crisis with scores rising to 59.6 in July. A survey of mixed crop farmers found only 2% fully supplied and 56% yet to purchase. With 69% of respondents explicitly blaming war for pushing fertiliser prices higher, affordability is a key issue.

Vietnam holds the strongest position with a low risk profile. An August survey showed 87% got everything they needed. In addition, the high global coffee prices are currently helping farmers absorb costs. However, with 48% of respondents now reporting drought, future supplies remain under threat.
Rob Weston, Founder and CEO of CropGPT: “The market is fundamentally mispricing the sheer scale of this crisis.

As the organisation noted, traders are understandably watching the forecasts to understand the impact of El Niño, but the real catastrophe is already happening on the ground. When 57% of farmers across key agricultural regions are reporting they can’t access or afford the fertiliser they need, we are not just looking at thinner margins, we are facing a global food crisis. Global food systems cannot absorb a shock of this magnitude without supermarket prices exploding and people starving.”

• A full copy of the report can be found at: Fertiliser Crisis Dashboard, Farmer Survey 2026 | CropGPT