Exclusive: ICCO delivers latest global cocoa forecasts revealing international surpluses
The International Cocoa Organisation has released its latest figures for global grinding that show a key reversal of conditions – from a closing season deficit for the 2023/24 season of 489,000 tonnes, to a 49,000 surplus in 24/25, reports Neill Barston.
As previously covered by our title, the sector has found itself in an extended period of criss over the past few years, as global markets have been significantly impacted by a range of factors including climate change, crop disease and land designated for farming being taken over by illegal gold mining operations in Ghana and Ivory Coast.
According to the ICCO, latest projections for the 24/25 season are in fact for a surplus of 49,000, as consumer demand has weakened, particularly for premium product ranges amid considerable constraints on household budgets around the world, as economies experience testing conditions.
However, according to the latest ICCO cocoa bulletin, elevated cocoa prices in recent years – which spiked with prices reaching $12,000 a tonne at the start of 2025 on commodities markets in New York and London, have reportedly encouraged farmers to reinvest in their operations, adopt improved cultivation techniques and expand production capacity, which the ICCO asserted has supported expectations of recovery.
Notably, as the organisation added, global cocoa grindings are estimated at 4.81 million tonnes for 2023/24 season and 4.60 million tonnes for 2024/25 season. High input costs have constrained processing margins, limiting growth and resulting in a year-on-year decline in grindings.
The latter factor is particularly important, indicating that the lull in processing activity reflects the wider market demand for finished products has softened, amid broader market pressures.
As previously reported, cocoa market prices have also reduced in recent months – around the $5-6k mark, roughly half the figures commanded at the start of the year. This is still significantly more than the $3,000 seen just two years ago in the industry.
Confectionery Production has noted that a number of cocoa market analysts have predicted a ‘bullish market’ in the coming weeks and months, anticipating conditions to improve in the near future.
