ICCO monthly cocoa report reveals ongoing concerns over price volatility

The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) has released its latest monthly report highlighting the impact of US tariffs and ongoing climate and crop conditions on the sector, writes Neill Barston.

As reported by Confectionery Production, the past 18 months have been marked by a high degree of price volatility as the industry battles crisis conditions in core growing regions of Ghana and Ivory Coast in West Africa, which have faced a near perfect storm of financial pressure, adverse weather and ongoing poverty within rural communities that has resulted in supply deficits.

According to the ICCO’s latest figures, which cover the third quarter of the 2024/25 season, which also marks the beginning of the mid-crop, beginning in April, the cost of contract increased to US$8,787 per tonne in London and to US$9,286 per tonne in New York. This was against highs of $12,000 a tonne seen at the start of the year.

As the report observed, at the start of last month, news reports sounded the alarm of a potential poor mid-crop from top producing countries in West Africa, which has followed a period prior to this where indications of some improvement in supply conditions had emerged .

Furthermore, the organisation asserted that with around five months until the end of the season, market clarity would be extremely welcome by all segments of the industry. As Confectionery Production has observed, farmers in West Africa in particular, have been left in a particularly challenging position – with prices continuing to remain particularly high against recent years’ values, with only limited increases in ‘farm gate’ being attained against the relative overall values being commanded for crops.

Tariff impact
Significantly, the ICCO’s report acknowledged that cocoa has “felt the ripple effects of the US trade tariffs which included a baseline tariff of 10% on all countries,” which, as previously stated, has seen sector farming organisations in West Africa make calls to the region’s governments to relinquish control of the cocoa industry to be managed as an independent operation.

During the second week of April, commodity prices fell, and likewise, cocoa prices compared to the high prices attained at the beginning of the month dropped by 17% in London from US$8,747 to US$7,332 per tonne and by 16% in New York from US$9,286 per tonne to US$7,800 per tonne.

As the ICCO noted, the drop in prices changed course during the third week of the month due to the announcement of a temporary pause by the US government on the imposition of tariffs. This provided some relief to commodities including cocoa. It is worth pointing out that the pause did not include the flat rate of 10% on all US imports.

In addition to the tariffs, uncertainty over the mid-crop harvest from West Africa supported prices. The nearby contract price recovered to US$8,102 per tonne in London and US$8,456 per tonne in New York. Cocoa prices further improved following the release of better-than-expected grindings data from major cocoa associations. On a year-on-year basis, for Q1.2025, the European Cocoa Association reported a drop of -3.7% (to 353,522 tonnes), the Cocoa Association of Asia (CAA)

Notably, grindings reportedly fell by -3.44% (to 213,898 tonnes) and the National Confectioners Association (NCA) data were down by -2.45% (to 110,278 tonnes). Though the quarterly grindings were negative, they were better than analysts’ expectations.

The grindings data signalled some demand resilience and boosted prices (Figure 3). By 25 April, the nearby contract’s prices in both markets were up. London increased to US$8,646 per tonne and in New York, prices rose to US$9.652 per tonne.

By the last week of April, reports of rains and conducive weather conditions favouring crop development in West Africa raised hopes for cocoa supplies. Côte d’Ivoire arrivals at the time were reported at 1.505 million tonnes by 27 April, which is about 11% higher than the corresponding period of the previous season. The nearby prices declined and ended the month at US$8,636 per tonne in London and US$9,127 per tonne in New York. Compared to prices a year ago (Figure 2), this reflects a 19% drop in London and a 9% fall in New York.