A looming chocolate crisis

18 April 2012 – A chocolate supply crisis may be looming says Professor David Guest, from the Faculty of Agriculture and Environment at the University of Sydney.

"We’re in a situation where chocolate manufacturers are anxious about meeting demand, as there’s rapidly increasing chocolate consumption in developing economies, paired with instability in cacao growing areas," says Guest.

Cacao is produced from fruit of the tropical tree Theobroma cacao which translates as ‘food of the Gods’ and is grown in West Africa, South America, Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

"Cacao is grown in areas vulnerable to climate change, political instability, pests and diseases," Guest says.

Threats to cacao production also include ageing plantations, poorly trained farmers and poorly managed trees, dependence on a narrow genetic base and crop substitution where cacao is replaced by maize because of the demand for bioethanol.

The chocolate crisis is exacerbated by the fact that global chocolate consumption is rising by two to three per cent annually.

"Chocolate consumption trends are different around the globe. In Australia, Europe and North America total consumption – around 6kg of chocolate per capita per year – is stable, but the trend is to dark chocolates or to niche marketed gourmet chocolates. Consumption dropped slightly during the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009," says Guest.

"In China, India, Eastern Europe and Brazil, however, per capita consumption rates are increasing rapidly, albeit from a relatively low base.

"One estimate is that global production will need to increase by one million tonnes per year by 2020 – from 3.6 million tonnes in 2009/2010 – to meet global demand."

Related content

Leave a reply

Confectionery Production